Fire Safety Science Digital Archive

In this paper, a multiple regression model with extreme observations is developed and illustrated with an example. The classical model needs to be modified to take into consideration the biases due to the use of large values rather than values covering the entire range of the fire loss variable. The presence or absence of sprinklers and the height of the building, i.e. single storey or multi-storey, are the two qualitative factors studied in this note. The total floor area is the third independent variable included in the analysis which is of a quantitative character. Judged from extreme losses, sprinklers appear to reduce the expected damage considerably. The model uses extreme observations individually; regression parameters are estimated from two sets of extremes, viz. the largest and the second largest and their replicated values over six years. The parameters have different values depending upon the rank of the extremes. In a later study it is hoped to estimate a single (constant) value for each regression parameter by carrying out a more complicated analysis combining the information on all large losses.