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Some Probabilistic Aspects Of Fire Risk Analysis For Nuclear Power Plants

Apostolakis, G.E., 1986. Some Probabilistic Aspects Of Fire Risk Analysis For Nuclear Power Plants. Fire Safety Science 1: 1039-1046. doi:10.3801/IAFSS.FSS.1-1039


The development of a methodology for the quantification of the risks associated with fires in nuclear power plants requires the use of judgment, deterministic models and statistical evidence. Several issues that arise are discussed including: 1. The impact of design changes, plant-to-plant variation and other qualitative factors on the assessment of the frequency of fires in specific locations; 2. The importance of distinguishing among statistical, parameter and modeling uncertainties, when fire propagation is studied; 3. How parameter and modeling uncertainties can be assessed; and 4. How the probability distribution of detection and suppression times can be determined.


Nuclear power plants, Risk analysis:

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