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An Event Tree Model For Estimation Of Fire Outbreak Risks In Case Of A Large-scale Earthquake

Kaji, H. and Komura, T., 1986. An Event Tree Model For Estimation Of Fire Outbreak Risks In Case Of A Large-scale Earthquake. Fire Safety Science 1: 931-940. doi:10.3801/IAFSS.FSS.1-931


This paper aims to develop a new method for estimating fire outbreak risks in the case of a large-scale earthquake using computer simulation technique, in which causal relationships concerning fire outbreak are modeled as an event tree structure. As a case study, kitchens for commercial use were taken, and about 5,000 kitchens of different types of business were surveyed particularly in terms of the fire appliances used therein. An event tree structure was designed on the basis of practical causal relations of 55 fires which broke out in past earthquakes. Monte Carlo simulation technique was applied for estimating fire outbreak risks by business type. Although many questions remain unanswered, the usefulness and high applicability of this method are clearly shown.


Computer simulations, Earthquake and fire, Event tree model, Monte Carlo simulation technique, Probability studies, earthquake/fire outbreak, Risk analysis: earthquake/fire, System analysis:

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