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We Don't Know What We Don't Know

Beard, A.N., 2003. We Don't Know What We Don't Know. Fire Safety Science 7: 765-776. doi:10.3801/IAFSS.FSS.7-765


In carrying out decision-making on risk then: {1} There may be possible sequences which are not known about or {2} There may be possible sequences which are known about but which are effectively ignored for one reason or another. It follows from this that we need to: {a} Be willing to question our assumptions, {b} Consciously try to be ‘creative’ in carrying out risk assessments, {c} Be open and explicit, {d} Look at a particular case from different points of view and using different models and {e} Err on the cautious side in making decisions on risk, to try to allow for the un-anticipated.


risk, assessment, modeling, assumptions, hazard

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