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A Probabilistic Approach To The Analysis Of Fire Safety In Hotels: Mocassin

Hignon, B. and Zini, M., 1991. A Probabilistic Approach To The Analysis Of Fire Safety In Hotels: Mocassin. Fire Safety Science 3: 505-513. doi:10.3801/IAFSS.FSS.3-505


After defining a quantifiable criterion i.e. the probability of a fire cousin multiple victims, an explanation is given of the advantage of using event-oriented modeling to which a simulation technique can be applied. The MINHOTAURE model developed to represent the possible functioning of the system being considered is a temporized, stochastic Petri net. After reviewing the rules which govern the operation of this type of network, the contents of the model, its possibilities and limits are briefly described. Scenarios are automatically created by a software package which uses a Monte-Carlo simulation to choose the valid transition delays. This software enables groups of scenarios to be simulated, different in both number and time. It supplies information concerning the marking of laces and conditions reached during or at the end of scenarios. Finally, in order to illustrate the advantage of and the possibilities offered by this approach, the probabilities of 4 events are given; two of which correspond to the presence of multiple victims at the end of the simulated scenarios. The results concern 6 projects which, for the same hotel, differ with regards to the safety equipment used.


fire safety analysis, fire safety level, deadly fire, multiple victims, probability, system, simulation, event-oriented modeling, probabilist approach, petri net, place, transition, message, marking, state, action delay, stochastic network, monte carlo, random variable

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